Forecast Accuracy
Forecast accuracy measures how close your predicted revenue or pipeline came to what actually happened. You compare the number you committed to at the start of a period against the number you closed, usually as a percentage, and track the gap over time rather than obsessing over any single quarter.
It matters because a forecast you cannot trust is worse than no forecast at all: it drives hiring, spend and cash decisions on a number that turns out to be fiction. For a solo founder running lean, a wildly optimistic pipeline is how you commit to costs the revenue never arrives to cover. Accuracy, not optimism, is what makes a forecast a planning tool.
You improve it by being honest about stage definitions, decaying old deals that have gone quiet, and reviewing why each missed deal slipped. Over a few cycles the pattern of your own bias becomes visible, and once you can see it, you can correct for it.